Mortgage rates: 30-year still rising
Home lending rates jump higher, with the 30-year fixed rate spiking to 5.45% in the week ended Wednesday.
By Catherine Clifford, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 28, 2009: 9:16 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home mortgage rates jumped in the most recent week, pulled higher by rising Treasury yields, according to a report released Thursday.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.45% in the week ended Wednesday, up from 5.24% last week, according to a weekly national survey from Bankrate.com.
Even as mortgage rates continue to rise, they still remain much lower than last year, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.20%, according to Bankrate.com.
To translate the difference in mortgage rate into dollars for a homeowner, consider a $200,000 loan. At 6.2%, the monthly payment would come out to $1,224.94, or $95 higher than the $1,129.31 monthly payment at 5.45%.
Mortgage rates move in tandem with Treasury yields. In particular, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracks the benchmark, 10-year Treasury yield. In recent days, that benchmark yield has spiked to levels not seen since November 2008.
With the government spending hand-over-fist to jumpstart the economy, the Treasury has been forced to sell unprecedented amounts of debt. The volume of supply has pushed down prices, sending yields higher. Yields and prices move in opposite direction.
Rising mortgage rates could slow a housing recovery, which the Obama administration has been working hard to jumpstart in an effort to start pulling the economy out of its recession.
Bankrate's national weekly mortgage survey is conducted each Wednesday from data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.
First Published: May 28, 2009: 8:43 AM ET
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Renewed HOPE for Homeowners
Renewed HOPE for Homeowners
Congress passed a bill amending HOPE for Homeowners that may make the program more useful.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 20, 2009: 5:06 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- One of the biggest disappointments of the foreclosure prevention fight has been HOPE for Homeowners, a plan Congress passed in an attempt to help as many as 400,000 underwater, delinquent borrowers from going into foreclosure.
In its first five months, HOPE for Homeowners helped one family stay in its home.
Congress and the Obama administration are hoping to do a lot better than that.
On Wednesday, President Obama signed into law a bill that attempts to correct the program's problems. The president said the program had many provisions that discouraged servicers from using it.
"This bill removes those hurdles," Obama said. The original bill, which took effect Oct. 1, was intended to help defaulting homeowners by having banks voluntarily reduce mortgage balances to 90% of a home's current market value. The loan would then be refinanced into a mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
The idea was that the lenders take "haircuts" and the government would then bail them out of any future losses by insuring the new loan.
As a result, most of the big lenders didn't offer the program, which was strictly voluntary though heavily encouraged by the Bush and Obama administrations. "The lender basically short-sells the mortgage into the plan, and there's no more chance for upside," said Tom Kelly, a spokesman for JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).
The new version of HOPE sweetens the FHA-refinance option - for lenders. It only requires servicers to reduce balances to 93% of market values instead of 90%. It also pays servicers $1,000 for every Hope-refinanced loan.
For example, borrowers who owed $220,000 on a house valued at $200,000 would need their mortgage balances reduced to $180,000 to qualify for an original HOPE for Homeowners refi. That's a $40,000 writeoff. Under the new plan, lenders would have to forgive $34,000.
But the biggest change is that it authorizes FHA's parent agency, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), to share future home-price appreciation with investors, up to the appraised value of the property when the existing loan was first issued. The original bill gave HUD the right to share potential profits 50/50 with homeowners, but now some of HUD's share would go to the original investors.
Also certain to increase servicer utilization of HOPE for Homeowners is a change in Treasury Department policy announced late last month. Treasury will require any servicer that signs up to participate in the Making Home Affordable program, the administration's mortgage modification plan, to evaluate borrower eligibility for Hope for Homeowners as well.
If borrowers don't fit into the Making Home Affordable program but are viable for HOPE, the servicers must offer them this option.
Industry insiders say they hope the changes will spur more lenders to use the plan.
"It's very important that it becomes a better program," said Faith Schwartz, director of Hope Now, a coalition of lenders, servicers, mortgage investors and community advocates. "We need the FHA to provide another outlet for refinancing these problem loans."
The final bill removed a provision that would have authorized bankruptcy court judges to lower mortgage balances to reflect current market values. Supporters of this "cramdown" believed it would pressure lenders into making more affordable modifications for at-risk borrowers. But the Senate removed that from their version of the bill and the House followed suit.
First Published: May 20, 2009: 5:00 PM ET
Congress passed a bill amending HOPE for Homeowners that may make the program more useful.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 20, 2009: 5:06 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- One of the biggest disappointments of the foreclosure prevention fight has been HOPE for Homeowners, a plan Congress passed in an attempt to help as many as 400,000 underwater, delinquent borrowers from going into foreclosure.
In its first five months, HOPE for Homeowners helped one family stay in its home.
Congress and the Obama administration are hoping to do a lot better than that.
On Wednesday, President Obama signed into law a bill that attempts to correct the program's problems. The president said the program had many provisions that discouraged servicers from using it.
"This bill removes those hurdles," Obama said. The original bill, which took effect Oct. 1, was intended to help defaulting homeowners by having banks voluntarily reduce mortgage balances to 90% of a home's current market value. The loan would then be refinanced into a mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
The idea was that the lenders take "haircuts" and the government would then bail them out of any future losses by insuring the new loan.
As a result, most of the big lenders didn't offer the program, which was strictly voluntary though heavily encouraged by the Bush and Obama administrations. "The lender basically short-sells the mortgage into the plan, and there's no more chance for upside," said Tom Kelly, a spokesman for JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).
The new version of HOPE sweetens the FHA-refinance option - for lenders. It only requires servicers to reduce balances to 93% of market values instead of 90%. It also pays servicers $1,000 for every Hope-refinanced loan.
For example, borrowers who owed $220,000 on a house valued at $200,000 would need their mortgage balances reduced to $180,000 to qualify for an original HOPE for Homeowners refi. That's a $40,000 writeoff. Under the new plan, lenders would have to forgive $34,000.
But the biggest change is that it authorizes FHA's parent agency, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), to share future home-price appreciation with investors, up to the appraised value of the property when the existing loan was first issued. The original bill gave HUD the right to share potential profits 50/50 with homeowners, but now some of HUD's share would go to the original investors.
Also certain to increase servicer utilization of HOPE for Homeowners is a change in Treasury Department policy announced late last month. Treasury will require any servicer that signs up to participate in the Making Home Affordable program, the administration's mortgage modification plan, to evaluate borrower eligibility for Hope for Homeowners as well.
If borrowers don't fit into the Making Home Affordable program but are viable for HOPE, the servicers must offer them this option.
Industry insiders say they hope the changes will spur more lenders to use the plan.
"It's very important that it becomes a better program," said Faith Schwartz, director of Hope Now, a coalition of lenders, servicers, mortgage investors and community advocates. "We need the FHA to provide another outlet for refinancing these problem loans."
The final bill removed a provision that would have authorized bankruptcy court judges to lower mortgage balances to reflect current market values. Supporters of this "cramdown" believed it would pressure lenders into making more affordable modifications for at-risk borrowers. But the Senate removed that from their version of the bill and the House followed suit.
First Published: May 20, 2009: 5:00 PM ET
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Existing home sales rise in 1Q 2009
Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in 1Q 2009
ORLANDO, Fla. – May 12, 2009 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 25 percent in first quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 31,412 existing homes sold statewide in 1Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 25,071 existing homes sold. It marks the third consecutive quarter that Florida has reported higher existing home sales; sales levels in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 were higher than the corresponding three-month period of the previous year, according to FAR.
Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the first quarter rose 19 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the second three-month period for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.
Statewide sales activity in 1Q 2009 also increased over 4Q 2008’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 1Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 4.14 percent over the 4Q 2008 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 1Q 2009 increased 21.1 percent over the 4Q 2008 level.
“Many first-time homebuyers are entering the market now to take advantage of current low mortgage rates, plentiful housing inventory and affordable homeownership opportunities,” says 2009 FAR President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member). “Typical homebuyers are realizing that now is the time to buy – they can find the Florida home of their dreams at a cost they can afford. Homeownership has always offered a wide range of benefits, including building financial security and increasing a sense of community, but the advantages offered in today’s market are unique.
”One such advantage is a dream come true for first-time homebuyers in Florida, she adds, thanks to a new program that the 2009 Florida Legislature approved through the adoption of the state’s general budget last week. Lawmakers passed a provision setting aside $30.1 million for the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program, which will help with downpayment assistance. Beginning July 1, those who qualify for the federal $8,000 first-time homebuyers tax credit will be able to apply for downpayment assistance before they close on the purchase of their home, and then repay the amount borrowed when they get their tax refund.
Shelton adds, “The beauty of this program is that the state will be paid back and, conceivably, more potential homebuyers could take advantage before the Dec. 1, 2009, expiration of the $8,000 federal first time homebuyer tax credit. While details of the program are still being worked out, we are all very excited about the incredible opportunity this offers for thousands of Florida families. It’s $8,000 more reasons to buy your first Florida home!”
Fifteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the first quarter compared to the same three-month-period a year earlier, while 12 MSAs showed gains in condo sales.
The statewide existing-home median sales price was $141,000 in the first quarter; a year earlier, it was $202,300 for a decrease of 30 percent. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), there remains a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.
In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 10,143 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 8,554 in 1Q 2008 for a 19 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $110,100 for the three-month period; in 1Q 2008, it was $177,000 for a decrease of 38 percent.
Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.06 percent in 1Q 2009; one year earlier, it averaged 5.88 percent.
© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
ORLANDO, Fla. – May 12, 2009 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 25 percent in first quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 31,412 existing homes sold statewide in 1Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 25,071 existing homes sold. It marks the third consecutive quarter that Florida has reported higher existing home sales; sales levels in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 were higher than the corresponding three-month period of the previous year, according to FAR.
Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the first quarter rose 19 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the second three-month period for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.
Statewide sales activity in 1Q 2009 also increased over 4Q 2008’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 1Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 4.14 percent over the 4Q 2008 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 1Q 2009 increased 21.1 percent over the 4Q 2008 level.
“Many first-time homebuyers are entering the market now to take advantage of current low mortgage rates, plentiful housing inventory and affordable homeownership opportunities,” says 2009 FAR President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member). “Typical homebuyers are realizing that now is the time to buy – they can find the Florida home of their dreams at a cost they can afford. Homeownership has always offered a wide range of benefits, including building financial security and increasing a sense of community, but the advantages offered in today’s market are unique.
”One such advantage is a dream come true for first-time homebuyers in Florida, she adds, thanks to a new program that the 2009 Florida Legislature approved through the adoption of the state’s general budget last week. Lawmakers passed a provision setting aside $30.1 million for the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program, which will help with downpayment assistance. Beginning July 1, those who qualify for the federal $8,000 first-time homebuyers tax credit will be able to apply for downpayment assistance before they close on the purchase of their home, and then repay the amount borrowed when they get their tax refund.
Shelton adds, “The beauty of this program is that the state will be paid back and, conceivably, more potential homebuyers could take advantage before the Dec. 1, 2009, expiration of the $8,000 federal first time homebuyer tax credit. While details of the program are still being worked out, we are all very excited about the incredible opportunity this offers for thousands of Florida families. It’s $8,000 more reasons to buy your first Florida home!”
Fifteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the first quarter compared to the same three-month-period a year earlier, while 12 MSAs showed gains in condo sales.
The statewide existing-home median sales price was $141,000 in the first quarter; a year earlier, it was $202,300 for a decrease of 30 percent. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), there remains a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.
In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 10,143 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 8,554 in 1Q 2008 for a 19 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $110,100 for the three-month period; in 1Q 2008, it was $177,000 for a decrease of 38 percent.
Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.06 percent in 1Q 2009; one year earlier, it averaged 5.88 percent.
© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Foreclosures: "April was a shocker"
Foreclosures: 'April was a shocker'
A record number of foreclosure filings took place during April, but the number of repossessions fell 11%.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 13, 2009: 8:04 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosures in April exceeded even March's blistering pace with a record 342,000 homes receiving notices of default, auction notices or undergoing bank repossessions, according to a regular industry report.
One of every 374 U.S. homes received a filing during the month, the highest monthly rate that RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties, has recorded in four-plus years of record keeping.
"April was a shocker," said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac. "I would have bet on a dip because March foreclosures were so high.
Instead, filings inched up 1% from March and rose 32% compared with April 2008.
There were 63,900 bank repossessions, the last stop in the foreclosure process. More than 1.3 million homes have now been lost to foreclosure since the market meltdown began in August 2007.
The increasing foreclosures will force RealtyTrac to rethink its forecasts, according to Sharga. "We had been predicting 3.4 million filings for the year," he said, "but we'll blow those numbers out of the water."
The lion's share of April's filings were ones in the early stages of the process, such as notices of default, according to James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's CEO. Bank repossessions actually fell 11% for the month, compared with March. That's due, according to Saccacio, to the many legislative and company moratoriums that have prevented the foreclosure process from starting on delinquent loans. Because fewer loans entered the process in past months, there had been fewer getting all the way to repossession. But now that those moratoriums are over, the volume of foreclosure filings is increasing. "It's likely that we'll see a corresponding spike in [repossessed properties] as these loans move through the foreclosure process over the next few months," Saccacio said in a prepared statement.
Ten states accounted for 75% of all foreclosure activity, and they fell generally into two categories: one-time bubble markets and the rust belt. California, which easily outpaced every other state with with 96,560 filings. Other hard-hit former boom towns were Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Those rust belts towns with the most filings were Illinois, Ohio and Michigan. Georgia, Texas and Virginia filled out the rest of the top 10 list.
Nevada, with one filing for every 68 households had the highest foreclosure rate in the land. Florida, with one for every 135 households ranked second; and California, with one for every 138, was third. Las Vegas continued to be the worst-hit metro area. It had more than 14,000 filings in April, one for every 56 households and 20% more than in March.
The Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., area was second with one in 57, a 31% month-over-month rise. Merced, Calif., where home prices have plunged almost two-thirds from their peak, had the third-highest rate. Five other California metro areas ranked in the top 10: Modesto was fourth, Riverside-San Bernardino fifth, Bakersfield sixth, Vallejo seventh and Stockton eighth. Miami and Orlando rounded out the list.
Raised expectations - Not helping, of course, is the steady erosion of home prices. The National Association of Realtors reported record home price losses Tuesday.
"[The home price decline] will lead to more foreclosures," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research.
The loss of home values put many more mortgage borrowers underwater, meaning they owe more on their loans than their homes are worth. That increases foreclosure rates in two ways: Underwater borrowers have no home equity to draw on should to pay for unexpected expenses such as big medical bills or major car or home repairs. That's makes them more likely to miss payments. And when home values fall far below mortgage balances, homeowners often walk away from their loans.
"There has been much more 'deed-in-lieu-of foreclosure' activity lately," said Sharga. This is a transaction in which borrowers simply tell their banks that they're not going to pay their mortgage and hand back their keys, and deeds, to their lenders.
"People are making the rational financial decision to walk away from underwater homes," he said.
re-posted by : Joe Sloboda
First Published: May 13, 2009: 4:35 AM ET
A record number of foreclosure filings took place during April, but the number of repossessions fell 11%.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 13, 2009: 8:04 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosures in April exceeded even March's blistering pace with a record 342,000 homes receiving notices of default, auction notices or undergoing bank repossessions, according to a regular industry report.
One of every 374 U.S. homes received a filing during the month, the highest monthly rate that RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties, has recorded in four-plus years of record keeping.
"April was a shocker," said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac. "I would have bet on a dip because March foreclosures were so high.
Instead, filings inched up 1% from March and rose 32% compared with April 2008.
There were 63,900 bank repossessions, the last stop in the foreclosure process. More than 1.3 million homes have now been lost to foreclosure since the market meltdown began in August 2007.
The increasing foreclosures will force RealtyTrac to rethink its forecasts, according to Sharga. "We had been predicting 3.4 million filings for the year," he said, "but we'll blow those numbers out of the water."
The lion's share of April's filings were ones in the early stages of the process, such as notices of default, according to James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's CEO. Bank repossessions actually fell 11% for the month, compared with March. That's due, according to Saccacio, to the many legislative and company moratoriums that have prevented the foreclosure process from starting on delinquent loans. Because fewer loans entered the process in past months, there had been fewer getting all the way to repossession. But now that those moratoriums are over, the volume of foreclosure filings is increasing. "It's likely that we'll see a corresponding spike in [repossessed properties] as these loans move through the foreclosure process over the next few months," Saccacio said in a prepared statement.
Ten states accounted for 75% of all foreclosure activity, and they fell generally into two categories: one-time bubble markets and the rust belt. California, which easily outpaced every other state with with 96,560 filings. Other hard-hit former boom towns were Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Those rust belts towns with the most filings were Illinois, Ohio and Michigan. Georgia, Texas and Virginia filled out the rest of the top 10 list.
Nevada, with one filing for every 68 households had the highest foreclosure rate in the land. Florida, with one for every 135 households ranked second; and California, with one for every 138, was third. Las Vegas continued to be the worst-hit metro area. It had more than 14,000 filings in April, one for every 56 households and 20% more than in March.
The Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., area was second with one in 57, a 31% month-over-month rise. Merced, Calif., where home prices have plunged almost two-thirds from their peak, had the third-highest rate. Five other California metro areas ranked in the top 10: Modesto was fourth, Riverside-San Bernardino fifth, Bakersfield sixth, Vallejo seventh and Stockton eighth. Miami and Orlando rounded out the list.
Raised expectations - Not helping, of course, is the steady erosion of home prices. The National Association of Realtors reported record home price losses Tuesday.
"[The home price decline] will lead to more foreclosures," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research.
The loss of home values put many more mortgage borrowers underwater, meaning they owe more on their loans than their homes are worth. That increases foreclosure rates in two ways: Underwater borrowers have no home equity to draw on should to pay for unexpected expenses such as big medical bills or major car or home repairs. That's makes them more likely to miss payments. And when home values fall far below mortgage balances, homeowners often walk away from their loans.
"There has been much more 'deed-in-lieu-of foreclosure' activity lately," said Sharga. This is a transaction in which borrowers simply tell their banks that they're not going to pay their mortgage and hand back their keys, and deeds, to their lenders.
"People are making the rational financial decision to walk away from underwater homes," he said.
re-posted by : Joe Sloboda
First Published: May 13, 2009: 4:35 AM ET
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Home prices slide by 14%
Home prices slide 14%
National median home price falls a record 13.8% in first quarter of 2009, primarily because the market is flooded with lower-priced foreclosures and short sales.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 12, 2009: 10:05 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The steep slide in home price accelerated at a record pace during the first three months of 2009, according to an industry report issued Tuesday.
The national median home price of single family homes sold during the first quarter fell 13.8% to $169,000 year over year, and 6.2% compared with the last quarter 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That was the largest year-over-year decline in the 30-year history of the report.
NAR attributed much of the loss to two factors: First-time homebuyers, who are often entry-level buyers, accounted for about half of all purchases during the quarter. And many buyers took advantage of the deeply discounted prices of foreclosed properties and short sales. These "distressed properties" typically sell for 20% less than traditional homes, according to NAR. These homes also accounted for about half of all transactions.
"Traditional homes in good condition have held their value much better, so owners shouldn't be overly concerned about median prices," said NAR president Charles McMillan, in a prepared statement.
Sales volume was weak as well. Homes sold at a 4.59 million annualized rate during the quarter, off 3.2% from the last three months of 2008 and down 6.8% from first quarter 2008.
NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, characterized it as a lull before an upturn. "Housing affordability conditions are at record high levels, " he said, "and we expect a measurable increase in home sales during the second half of the year, which would help stabilize prices in most areas."
First Published: May 12, 2009: 10:00 AM ET
National median home price falls a record 13.8% in first quarter of 2009, primarily because the market is flooded with lower-priced foreclosures and short sales.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 12, 2009: 10:05 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The steep slide in home price accelerated at a record pace during the first three months of 2009, according to an industry report issued Tuesday.
The national median home price of single family homes sold during the first quarter fell 13.8% to $169,000 year over year, and 6.2% compared with the last quarter 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That was the largest year-over-year decline in the 30-year history of the report.
NAR attributed much of the loss to two factors: First-time homebuyers, who are often entry-level buyers, accounted for about half of all purchases during the quarter. And many buyers took advantage of the deeply discounted prices of foreclosed properties and short sales. These "distressed properties" typically sell for 20% less than traditional homes, according to NAR. These homes also accounted for about half of all transactions.
"Traditional homes in good condition have held their value much better, so owners shouldn't be overly concerned about median prices," said NAR president Charles McMillan, in a prepared statement.
Sales volume was weak as well. Homes sold at a 4.59 million annualized rate during the quarter, off 3.2% from the last three months of 2008 and down 6.8% from first quarter 2008.
NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, characterized it as a lull before an upturn. "Housing affordability conditions are at record high levels, " he said, "and we expect a measurable increase in home sales during the second half of the year, which would help stabilize prices in most areas."
First Published: May 12, 2009: 10:00 AM ET
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
More than one in five homeowners underwater
NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Home values in the United States extended their fall in the first quarter, with more than one in five homeowners now owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, real estate website Zillow.com said on Wednesday.
U.S. home values posted a year-over-year decline of 14.2 percent to a Zillow Home Value Index of $182,378, resulting in a total 21.8 percent drop since the market peaked in 2006, according to Zillow's first-quarter Real Estate Market Reports, which encompass 161 metropolitan areas and cover the value changes in all homes, not just homes that have recently sold.
U.S. homes lost $704 billion in value during the first quarter and have depreciated $3.8 trillion in the past 12 months, according to analysis of the reports.
Declining home values left 21.9 percent of all American homeowners with negative equity by the end of the first quarter, Zillow said.
By comparison, 17.6 percent of all homeowners owed more on their mortgage than their property was worth in the fourth quarter of 2008, and 14.3 percent were underwater in the third quarter of last year, the reports showed.
Nine consecutive quarters of declines have left eight regions -- including the Modesto, California, Stockton, California, and Fort Myers, Florida regions -- with median value declines of more than 50 percent since those markets peaked.
In 85 of the 161 markets covered in the report, the annualized change over the past five years is negative or flat, the reports showed.
But in an early sign of improvement, 17 metropolitan areas across the country -- notably several hard-hit markets in California, including Los Angeles, San Diego and Modesto -- have seen two or more consecutive quarters of smaller year-over-year declines in home values, the reports showed.
Meanwhile, potential sellers appear to be holding back until evidence of an improved housing market. In a separate survey of homeowner sentiment, nearly one-third, or 31 percent, of homeowners said they would be at least somewhat likely to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a recovering real estate market, the reports showed.
"Slowing declines in select markets are a bright spot or, at least, what passes for one given current market conditions," Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow vice president of data and analytics, said in a statement.
"Unfortunately, given the magnitude of the current rates of decline, we're still many months away from a bottom even as depreciation slows," he said. "Moreover, the additional information we have this quarter on 'shadow inventory,' with one-third of homeowners indicating they would like to put their home on the market if conditions improve, confirms our earlier fears that a bottom in home values could be quite protracted."
"By our calculations, this could translate into as many as 20 million homes that could seep into the market as prices stabilize, maintaining a constant stream of supply that far outpaces demand, thus keeping prices flat. I'm doubtful that we'll see the bottom until 2010, and thereafter it's increasingly clear that we're likely to have a long bottom before we see meaningful recovery in home values," Humphries said.
Of all transactions is the past 12 months, 20.4 percent were foreclosures, up slightly from 19.9 percent in the fourth quarter, while 11.9 percent of homes sold were short sales, also up slightly from 10.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the reports showed
re-posted by : Joseph Sloboda
U.S. home values posted a year-over-year decline of 14.2 percent to a Zillow Home Value Index of $182,378, resulting in a total 21.8 percent drop since the market peaked in 2006, according to Zillow's first-quarter Real Estate Market Reports, which encompass 161 metropolitan areas and cover the value changes in all homes, not just homes that have recently sold.
U.S. homes lost $704 billion in value during the first quarter and have depreciated $3.8 trillion in the past 12 months, according to analysis of the reports.
Declining home values left 21.9 percent of all American homeowners with negative equity by the end of the first quarter, Zillow said.
By comparison, 17.6 percent of all homeowners owed more on their mortgage than their property was worth in the fourth quarter of 2008, and 14.3 percent were underwater in the third quarter of last year, the reports showed.
Nine consecutive quarters of declines have left eight regions -- including the Modesto, California, Stockton, California, and Fort Myers, Florida regions -- with median value declines of more than 50 percent since those markets peaked.
In 85 of the 161 markets covered in the report, the annualized change over the past five years is negative or flat, the reports showed.
But in an early sign of improvement, 17 metropolitan areas across the country -- notably several hard-hit markets in California, including Los Angeles, San Diego and Modesto -- have seen two or more consecutive quarters of smaller year-over-year declines in home values, the reports showed.
Meanwhile, potential sellers appear to be holding back until evidence of an improved housing market. In a separate survey of homeowner sentiment, nearly one-third, or 31 percent, of homeowners said they would be at least somewhat likely to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a recovering real estate market, the reports showed.
"Slowing declines in select markets are a bright spot or, at least, what passes for one given current market conditions," Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow vice president of data and analytics, said in a statement.
"Unfortunately, given the magnitude of the current rates of decline, we're still many months away from a bottom even as depreciation slows," he said. "Moreover, the additional information we have this quarter on 'shadow inventory,' with one-third of homeowners indicating they would like to put their home on the market if conditions improve, confirms our earlier fears that a bottom in home values could be quite protracted."
"By our calculations, this could translate into as many as 20 million homes that could seep into the market as prices stabilize, maintaining a constant stream of supply that far outpaces demand, thus keeping prices flat. I'm doubtful that we'll see the bottom until 2010, and thereafter it's increasingly clear that we're likely to have a long bottom before we see meaningful recovery in home values," Humphries said.
Of all transactions is the past 12 months, 20.4 percent were foreclosures, up slightly from 19.9 percent in the fourth quarter, while 11.9 percent of homes sold were short sales, also up slightly from 10.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the reports showed
re-posted by : Joseph Sloboda
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